July 23, 2024

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Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?


Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?  The diagnosis and severe illness have skyrocketed, and the reason is still unclear…


Delta plus has reached AY.12 and is pandemic in Israel…


Since Israel reported 6,275 newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases on August 10, which suddenly doubled from 3,421 the day before, the country’s epidemic has changed so fast that people can’t keep up with the pace, and even relevant experts in the country have been following up quickly.

Nothing… At present, the number of newly diagnosed cases in Israel reached a new high on August 17, local time, reaching 8,646. This new high does not represent the conclusion of the Israeli epidemic. What will happen afterwards remains to be seen.


Local Israeli media reports


There was a sudden increase in cases on August 10. No official explanation yet


It is said that the Israeli epidemic has changed rapidly recently and the situation is complicated. It is not only because the number of newly diagnosed, severe, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) cases and deaths is increasing, but because there are many influencing factors, and the situation is changing rapidly and not obtained. explain.


For example, the number of newly confirmed cases suddenly doubled on August 10, and the number of confirmed cases has not returned to the magnitude before August 10, and there was another surge in new cases on August 17, without explanation. What happened on August 10th, what caused the sudden increase, and why did the new diagnoses not go down? There are no answers to these questions.


Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?

Local news on August 10


In addition to the surge in confirmed diagnoses, the number of critical illnesses in Israel is also increasing. Due to relatively good intensive care resources and abundant ECMO resources, the rise in deaths is lagging behind.


From the 13th to the 15th of August, the situation was directly flipped


On August 13th, local time, the third day when the new addition continued to rise, local media reported that Jonathan Halevy, an expert involved in the decision-making of the national defense epidemic, publicly stated that he was “not worried” about the continuous rise, and said that he was observing critically ill patients and patients. The number of patients who must use ECMO.

He believes that the number of patients using ECMO in the ward is growing very slowly, and most patients who need ECMO are either not vaccinated, or old, or have underlying diseases, young people who have been vaccinated and have no underlying diseases. , Only a few need ECMO.


At the same time, the Israeli government has adopted a “three-pronged approach” when there is a sudden surge. On the one hand, it has tightened epidemic prevention measures, such as strengthening supervision of the implementation of masks and social distancing, increasing nucleic acid testing, and speeding up the implementation of the first attack.

Three injections, to expand the target population of the third injection, and relevant officials even made statements such as “You may die if you don’t get the third injection” in the propaganda. The last aspect is to increase the hospital’s financial budget and require the hospital to immediately increase medical staff. Quantity, number of beds and related manpower and material resources.


Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?

Prime Minister’s speech reported by local media


In fact, Israel’s response can be said to be quite swift. It does not lie flat and allow the virus to spread and allow new cases to rise. On August 15, local time, Israel had completed 866,000 doses of booster shots, and this data is still advancing rapidly. On the same day, Israeli Health Minister Nachman Ash publicly stated that if the third shot fails to suppress the number of new cases this week, it will take the final measure-lockdown.


Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?

Nachman Ash’s statement reported by local media


Nachman Ash said at the time that because of the increase in the number of newly confirmed cases and the number of severe cases, the quality of the hospital’s medical treatment has been affected.

Now the third injection has to be given an observation period to see if the number of cases can be controlled by administering enhanced injections, especially If the situation is severely ill, avoid medical runs. If the situation does not get better, the city will be closed…


This resolution immediately caused a lot of controversy. After all, on the 13th, there were experts who said “no need to worry” and “everything is under control.” On the 15th, the Minister of Health came out and said, “Maybe we will close the city.” People can’t accept it.


On Aug. 16th, the director of the hospital exposed severe growth


On August 16, Michael Halberthal, CEO of Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa, Israel, disclosed the status of his hospital. He introduced that there are 65 patients in the COVID-19 ward of the hospital, 12 of whom were admitted to the hospital within the past 24 hours that day. Among these 65 people, 46 were severely ill, 19 were intubated, and 1 was on ECMO. Among 65 people, 60% were vaccinated.


When asked whether the increase in severe cases in the hospital is slowing down, Michael Halberthal responded honestly: “We did not see this in the hospital. We saw the continued increase in severe cases. Both yesterday and today are new severe cases. It is very serious. Since July, 27 people have died from COVID-19 in our hospital, but most of them have occurred in the past 10 days.”


At the same time, he introduced that the hospital’s medical resources have gradually become insufficient. On August 16, the hospital was overcrowded. One afternoon, 140 patients were stranded in the emergency room, and 30 patients with other diseases could not be admitted. More COVID-19 patients cannot be admitted to the hospital.

At the same time, 67 employees of the hospital are in isolation, 60 of whom have been diagnosed with COVID-19. Therefore, on the one hand, the number of patients has skyrocketed, and on the other hand, medical staff are understaffed because of the COVID-19 infection. The remaining medical staff on duty have affected the quality of medical care due to overtime and excessive work.


Even so, Michael Halberthal still believes that closing the city is not a good choice, mainly because he believes that closing the city cannot solve the problem. On the same day, the Israeli Minister of Justice stated that the closure of the city should be the last resort. Strengthening vaccination and strengthening social isolation can be a higher priority, because the closure of the city may affect the local economy and daily life.


Also on August 16, Asher Salmon, an expert from the Israeli Ministry of Health, publicly stated that Israel should be wary of a new variant in South America. This variant is currently gradually replacing Delta in the United States, and the vaccine owned by Israel is very likely. It is difficult to fight against this mutant strain. The statement did not name the specific variant strain. Lambda (C37), which has recently attracted media attention, was actually on the country’s list of breakthrough infection cases as early as after Israel had just completed the mass vaccination of 2 doses. .


Asher Salmon also pointed out that Israel currently prepares thousands of critically ill beds to deal with the epidemic, but if the situation cannot be controlled, it will face a severe situation of increasing by 1,000 critically ill patients in a single week.


On Aug. 17th, the epidemic continued to rise and began to predict the death toll


On August 17, Professor Salman Zarka, an Israeli coronavirus expert (known as Coronavirus czar, Coronavirus Czar), said that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in Israel continues to increase, and 93 people have been intubated. “Delta does not listen to our commands.”


Why did the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel suddenly reverse?

Local media reports on the viral czar’s speech


Later Salman Zarka pointed out that Israel’s vaccination effect is being challenged by delta. After the third injection, relevant experts are looking at the data every day and eagerly hope that the epidemic can be alleviated. However, the newly diagnosed, severe illnesses and deaths have not fallen as expected, and they are still in decline. Go higher. He concluded: “You have to understand that’hope’ is not an effective plan.” On that day, the good news was that no patients who received the booster shot were hospitalized for the time being.


On the same day, Michael Halberthal spoke again, criticizing the Israeli government’s strategy for hospitals-lowering medical standards as a hospital administrator. The reason is that in order to cope with the peak of the epidemic, Israel needs to increase the number of beds, especially the ICU manpower. Medical equipment may be available for purchase, but it is more difficult to increase the number of medical care. Therefore, relevant parties propose to lower the medical standards to overcome the difficulties. .


Michael Halberthal opposes this and believes that this requirement is difficult. He believes that Israel does not have the capacity to accommodate 1,200 critically ill patients at one time. For example, his hospital has only 60 critically ill beds, and the government requires him to increase the number of beds to 270 sheets.


“I told them, it’s impossible.” Michael Halberthal said.


On the same day, relevant parties denied the existence of the above-mentioned statements and disputes.


On August 17, another group of local experts spoke out. A research team from the Hebrew University in Israel predicted that between now and the end of September, Israel will have 1,000 new deaths due to the epidemic. The team previously accurately predicted that Israel will start the fourth wave of the epidemic in July, and now they remind that it is very likely that 150-250 COVID-19 patients will die in Israel every week.


This team believes that the data on August 17 shows that the rate of new severe illnesses is slowing down. Although it is still going up, it is not as violent as before. Based on this, they believe that the peak of new deaths will not reach 2,000 people.


104 people were intubated, and social control continued to strengthen


On August 18, local time, there were 7,832 new confirmed cases in Israel, a slowdown from the 8,646 new cases the day before. There are currently 104 people in intubation, compared with 89 the day before. 143 were critically ill, compared with 130 the previous day. There were 559 severe cases on the 17th and 578 cases on the 18th.


On the 18th, Israel added more stringent control measures to the previous control clauses, which will limit the number of people in public places. Among them, children aged 3-12 can enter and exit certain public places (such as hotels, restaurants, public auditoriums, etc.) A negative certificate of nucleic acid test is required.


On the 18th, Israel also reported a special emergency: Israel sent a special plane (Airbus 320) and a medical team to urgently retrieve three Israeli tourists infected with COVID-19 from Iceland. Three physicians and an assistant are randomly equipped with corresponding first aid equipment.


Related reports


The news did not explain in detail why the three Israeli tourists had to be picked up urgently. Prior to this, Iceland and Israel had completed high-level vaccinations. Therefore, the operation of this special plane to pick up patients in an emergency inevitably made people suspicious.


What happened to Israel?  “Civil War” on Delta variant?


At present, experts from all walks of life in Israel are struggling to cope with the increasing number of diagnoses and critical illnesses every day, and have not yet been able to give an answer. The original plan was to observe the effect of the third injection this week before deciding whether to close the city. There is no news about whether the plan has changed.


From the perspective of virus variants, the Israeli epidemic has a particularity-the main variant is Delta’s variant subtype AY.12. The AY series, commonly known as Delta Plus, is a new mutation on the basic version of the Delta mutant strain. AY.12 is ranked number 12 in this large group of plus.


According to data released by the GISAID-related virus statistics website Regeneron, AY.12 may account for about 78% of the virus strains currently circulating in Israel.


Upload sequence statistics


Due to the rapid growth of Delta’s plus model and rapid changes in the spreading situation, whether the mutation of AY.12 is related to the recurrence of the Israeli epidemic remains unanswered. However, it can be seen from the distribution trend map of the mutant strains (below) that AY.12 (red in the figure) appeared in Israel in early April and rose at the end of May this year, and it was initially better than the original Delta (navy blue in the picture). It’s much stronger.


At the beginning of April, the percentage of the Israeli population who was fully vaccinated was about 53%. At the end of May, Israel’s vaccination rate reached 60%. It is very likely that there will be new mutations for vaccines (for related reports, please click “read the original text to view”). Of course, we cannot confirm whether AY.12 appeared for this reason.


Map of mutant strains released by REGENERON


In addition to AY.12, Israel also has 4 Delta plus AY.4, AY.5, AY.6, AY.9, that is, 1 Delta and 5 Delta plus are currently fighting in Israel. From the strong red in the picture Judging from the space occupied and the once-increased navy and blue colors, there was a civil war between the various Delta models.


It is worth noting that AY.12 has already appeared in India and Bangladesh.


(source:internet, reference only)

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