The actual COVID death may exceed 18 million and 3 times than official data

The actual COVID death may exceed 18 million and 3 times than official data

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The actual COVID death may exceed 18 million and 3 times than official data.

The Lancet: How many people have died from the COVID-19? The actual number may exceed 18 million, which is 3 times the official data.

Up to now, the COVID-19 pandemic has been more than 2 years, during which more than 450 million people have been infected and more than 6 million people have died. But many researchers believe that the actual number of infections and deaths from Covid-19 far exceeds these statistics.

On March 10, 2022, The Lancet published a research paper titled: Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21 .

The paper, which counted excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories around the world from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, noted that due to delayed and incomplete reporting and dozens of countries The lack of statistics has led to a serious shortage of official statistics.

The paper uses modeling to show that the number of deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic may be three times higher than the official data, that is, by the end of 2021, 18 million people around the world will die from the COVID-19 pandemic .

Specifically, the global excess mortality rate caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is 120.3 people/100,000 people , of which 21 countries have an excess mortality rate of more than 300 people/100,000 people.

South Asia, North Africa and the Middle East and Eastern Europe have the largest excess deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

At the country level, the countries with the most excess deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic are India (4.07 million) , the United States (1.13 million) , Russia (1.07 million) , Mexico (800,000) , Brazil (790,000) , and Indonesia (740,000). and Pakistan (660,000) .

Among these countries with the highest excess deaths, the highest excess mortality rates are Russia (374.6 per 100,000) and Mexico (325.1 per 100,000) , Brazil (186.9 per 100,000) and the United States ( 179.3 people/ 100,000 people) .

To assess the actual number of deaths from the Covid-19 pandemic, the research team used a measure called excess mortality .

It’s a handy tool to overcome differences in how deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic are identified and recorded across locations.

The research team estimated excess deaths by comparing the total number of deaths from all causes reported in a region or country with the number of deaths expected by trends in recent years.

Excess mortality is a good measure of Covid-related deaths, but this method of estimation includes not only direct deaths from Covid-19 infection, but also those who did not contract Covid-19 but died as a result of Covid-19-induced collapse of the healthcare system.

More research is needed to differentiate between deaths directly caused by COVID-19 and deaths indirectly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The research team collected data on deaths from all causes in 74 countries and territories, and for countries and territories that did not provide such data, they assessed them by building mathematical statistical models.

The analysis showed that 5.9 million Covid-19 deaths were reported between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021, but the global excess death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic during this period could be as high as 18.2 million , a figure that is More than 3 times the official statistics.

Global distribution of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020-2021

Statistically, the regions with the highest excess mortality are Latin America and the Andes (512 excess deaths per 100,000) , Eastern Europe (345 excess deaths per 100,000) , Central Europe (100,000) 316 excess deaths per 100,000 people) , sub-Saharan Africa (309 excess deaths per 100,000 people) and central Latin America (274 excess deaths per 100,000 people) .

Countries such as China , Australia and New Zealand have the lowest excess mortality rates, with fewer than 1 excess death per 100,000 population.

The result is the first estimate of the global excess death toll from Covid-19 to appear in a peer-reviewed journal. The World Health Organization (WHO) will also release relevant data later this month.

In addition, the British “Economist” magazine’s estimates are similar, but their estimates have a wider margin of error, with a 95% confidence interval of 12.6 million to 21 million, and the “Lancet” published data between 17.1 million and 19.6 million between.

Statistical COVID-19 deaths and modeling estimates

Reference:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02796-3
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0

The actual COVID death may exceed 18 million and 3 times than official data

(source:internet, reference only)

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