March 2, 2024

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Lilly Mounjaro to Surpass Novo Nordisk’s Ozenpic with $27 Billion in Sales by 2029

Lilly Mounjaro to Surpass Novo Nordisk’s Ozenpic with $27 Billion in Sales by 2029



Lilly Mounjaro to Surpass Novo Nordisk’s Ozenpic with $27 Billion in Sales by 2029

Fueled by robust efficacy and safety data, along with social media buzz and celebrity endorsements, Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (branded as Wegovy) took the weight-loss industry by storm in 2023, emerging as the shining star among pharmaceutical products.

 

However, a potential contender has emerged – Lilly’s tirzepatide (branded as Zepbound), which received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its obesity indication in November 2023.

According to data from leading analytics company GlobalData, powerful clinical data on weight loss is projected to propel tirzepatide ahead of semaglutide, making it the best-selling drug in the obesity and diabetes market, with estimated sales reaching $27 billion by 2029.

 

Both drugs initially received approval for diabetes indications: Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide got FDA approval in May 2017 (branded as Ozenpic) and is expected to maintain a leading position in the short term, having been approved five years earlier than Lilly’s tirzepatide, which received its first approval in May 2023 (branded as Mounjaro).

 

A notable meta-analysis of 22 trials published by Rodriguez and colleagues in October 2023 demonstrated Mounjaro’s superiority over Ozenpic in terms of efficacy.

The study found that Mounjaro’s high, medium, and low doses (15mg, 10mg, and 5mg) outperformed Ozenpic’s corresponding high, medium, and low doses (2mg, 1mg, and 0.5mg) in reducing diabetes biomarkers.

Additionally, Mounjaro’s lowest approved dose of 5mg displayed superior weight loss efficacy compared to Ozenpic’s 1mg and 0.5mg injection doses.

 

Over the next seven years, Mounjaro (including Zepbound) is expected to achieve an impressive compound annual growth rate of 36%, surpassing Ozenpic (including Wegovy) at 6.5%.

The robust forecast for Mounjaro is mainly attributed to its FDA approval for obesity in November 2023, considering the U.S. market is its most lucrative pharmaceutical market, accounting for 76% of the total sales from 2023 to 2029.

 

Mounjaro is poised to establish Lilly as a heavyweight in the obesity and diabetes drug market, competing head-to-head with Novo Nordisk.

Lilly Mounjaro to Surpass Novo Nordisk's Ozenpic with $27 Billion in Sales by 2029

Lilly Mounjaro to Surpass Novo Nordisk’s Ozenpic with $27 Billion in Sales by 2029

(source:internet, reference only)


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