COVID-19: Pfizer and Moderna more than 60% vaccine market
COVID-19: Pfizer and Moderna more than 60% vaccine market.Pfizer and Moderna will account for more than 60% of the $38 billion COVID-19 vaccine market
It is expected that the first batch of COVID-19 vaccines will be vaccinated in the next few weeks. For companies in the vaccine race, 2021 will be a very long year.
Bernstein analysts predict that in the COVID-19 vaccine development track, the top five companies will have sales of 38 billion US dollars next year, and the first listed companies will account for more than 50%. Analysts predict that next year’s COVID-19 vaccine sales, Pfizer will reach 14.3 billion U.S. dollars, followed by Moderna’s 10.9 billion U.S. dollars, AstraZeneca’s 6.4 billion U.S. dollars, Novavax’s 3.9 billion U.S. dollars and Johnson & Johnson’s 3 billion U.S. dollars.
The analyst team predicts that by 2022, the total sales of COVID-19 vaccines will reach 23.1 billion US dollars, by 2023 they will reach 12.6 billion US dollars, and by 2024 they will reach 8.5 billion US dollars. Assuming that vaccination needs to be strengthened every three years, by 2025, the COVID-19 vaccine market will shrink to about 6 billion US dollars. But their model currently only considers the top five companies on the track.
The team further considered expectations for the December launch and the company’s latest comments on price and dosage availability.
The financial forecast comes at a time when COVID-19 vaccine research has achieved great success. On Wednesday, Pfizer BioNTech received the world’s first fully-studied vaccine approved by the United Kingdom. According to reports, Pfizer plans to provide about 800,000 doses in the UK next week, while the UK has placed orders for a total of 40 million doses.
At the same time, Pfizer is preparing to meet with FDA independent experts on December 10, and is expected to follow the FDA’s decision. The next player, Moderna, who is closest to listing, will meet with the expert group on December 17. US officials said that the first round of vaccination in the US will begin this month.
The Bernstein analysis team expects that the United States will gain herd immunity next summer, and Moncef Slaoui, the head of the “Warp Speed” operation, recently expressed greater expectations. In an interview with CNN last month, he said that based on the expected vaccination rate, the United States may reach herd immunity by May.