WHO: Global COVID-19 cases drop by 25%

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WHO: Global COVID-19 cases drop by 25%

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WHO: Global COVID-19 cases drop by 25%

The COVID-19 continues to this day, and mankind has paid a painful price. Many people are anxious about when will the epidemic end?

When can we return to the cool summer and quiet times before 2019?

 Recently, the WHO released the latest real data on the global epidemic.

WHO: COVID-19 cases drop by 25%

On August 17, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a COVID-19 epidemic report showing that the number of COVID-19 cases reported globally last week fell by 25%, and the number of deaths fell by 6%, but the number of COVID-19 deaths in parts of Asia still at a higher level (Figure 1) .

Figure 1 World Health Organization report (Source: [1])

Global region : new cases continue to decline, new deaths are concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region

As of August 14, 2022, 587 million confirmed cases and 6.4 million deaths have been reported globally.

At the regional level, the number of new cases reported weekly declined in all six global regions: African Region (-38%) , European Region (-38%) , Eastern Mediterranean Region (-30%) , Western Pacific Region (-18%) , the Americas region (-17%) and the Southeast Asia region (-11%) .

Weekly new deaths increased in the Western Pacific (+31%) and South-East Asia Regions (+12%) , while in the African Region (-33%) , European Region (-25%) , Eastern Mediterranean Region (-7%) and the Americas (-4%) decreased or remained stable (Figure 2) .

Figure 2 Weekly reported COVID-19 cases and global deaths in WHO regions as of 14 August 2022 (Source: [1])

National level: South Korea has the highest rate of new cases, and Japan has the highest rate of new deaths

At the country level, the countries reporting the highest number of new cases per week were: South Korea (866,830 new cases; +22%) , Japan (1,395,301 new cases; -7%) , United States (679,653 new cases; -14%) , Germany ( 271,277 new cases; -25%) and Italy (193,305 new cases; -32%) . The countries reporting the most new deaths each week were: Japan (1647 new deaths; 64%) , United States (2907 new deaths; -4%) , Brazil (1495 new deaths; +3%) , Italy ( 920 new deaths; -13%) and Spain (573 new deaths; -12%) .

Figure 3 Report of COVID-19 pneumonia cases per 100,000 population by country, region and region from August 8 to 14, 2022 (Source: [1])

Global mainstream infection with COVID-19 variant strains: BA.5.1, BA.5.2.1 and BA.5.2

In terms of Omicron progeny variant prevalence: BA.1.X, BA.2.X (including BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.75) and BA in week 30 , 2022 (24-30 July)

The prevalence of .3.X during the period was <1%, 3%, and <1%; the prevalence of BA.4.X was 8%, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous weeks; compared with other offspring lineages

The relative prevalence of BA.5 and its descendant lineages continued to rise, accounting for 74% of sequences submitted during week 31 (July 31 to August 6) (Figure 4) .

Figure 4 Number and percentage of global SARS-CoV-2 sequences as of August 15, 2022 (Source: [1])

Genetic diversification of BA.5 also resulted in multiple progeny lineages with additional mutations in both spiking and non-spiking regions.

The relative proportions of BA.5.1, BA.5.2, and BA.5.2.1 were increasing across all BA.5 progeny lineages, each accounting for 29 of the submitted sequences at week 31 (from July 31 to August 6) %, 22% and 30%. From 7 to 13 August, BA.5.2.1 was the most prevalent variant in the six WHO regions.

Vaccine Efficacy: All vaccines showed significant reductions in VE in the face of Omicron variants

To date, 37 studies from 15 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Israel, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, United Kingdom, United States of America and Zambia) have collectively evaluated six vaccines Protection against Omicron variants.

Thirteen studies provided estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the primary series of vaccinations only for this table , and 4 studies provided estimates of VE for the first booster dose.

Twenty studies made estimates for both scenarios. The results of these studies show that the 2019-nCoV vaccine provides significantly lower VE against severe disease, symptomatic disease, and infection in the presence of the Omicron variant compared to the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and the four previously circulating variants.

Note: EUL (Emergency Use Listing) means emergency use list, HNR (high non-response) means high non-response, and the median percentage response of all studies is <75%.

Subscripted numbers indicate the number of this study. Arrows summarize the magnitude of vaccine efficacy or reduction in neutralization: “↔” indicates a <2-fold reduction in neutralization; “↓” indicates a 2- to <5-fold reduction; “↓↓” indicates a 5- to <10-fold reduction; “↓↓” ↓” indicates a decrease of ≥10 times.

In severe cases, VE barely decreased within 6 months after vaccination. Of the 15 VE studies with mRNA vaccines (Moderna-Spikevax and Pfizer BioNTech-Comirnaty) , 9 (60%) showed an estimated VE of ≥70% within the first three months after the first dose.

In the VE data study of two vector vaccines, VE < 70% for both vaccines: VE < 70% for AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria and VE < 50% for Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S.

There are four studies of inactivated vaccines: Sinovac-CoronaVac has three estimates below 70% (two VEs are 67% and one is ≥50%) ; Beijing CNBG-BBIPCorV (Sinopharm) : 50%≦VE<70% .

14 (41%) of 34 study mRNA vaccines had VE estimates ≥70% at 3 months ; 13 (8%) of AstraZeneca-Vaxzevria had VE estimates ≥70%.

Two estimates for vector vaccine JanssenAd26.COV2.S were <50%; four estimates for Sinovac-CoronaVac: 50%≦VE<70%.

Across all studies, the first booster dose increased VE for severe disease, with 37 (95%) of 39 estimates of VE between days 14 and 3 months of receiving the booster dose of VE ≥ 70%.

Thirty-six studies assessed the mRNA enhancer VE, 2 assessed the Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S enhancer VE, and 1 assessed the Sinovac-CoronaVac enhancer VE.VE<50% for the booster dose of Moderna-Spikevax (although the confidence interval was very wide) and VE<70% for the booster dose of Janssen-Ad26.COV2.S.VE ≥ 70% in 26 of 29 studies 3 to 6 months after the mRNA boost.

One study found that 50%≦VE<70% within 3 to 6 months after the third dose of Sinovac-CoronaVac.

The pace of mutation of the COVID-19 will not stop, and the direction of mutation is beyond human control.

However, at present, the vast majority of people in China do not have immunity against the COVID-19, and are susceptible to the COVID-19.

After the onset of infection, some people will develop into critical illness and even cause death.

As Academician Li Lanjuan said, how to grasp the epidemic prevention measures of the COVID-19 requires comprehensive analysis and evaluation by experts, combined with comprehensive analysis of the harm of the virus to human health, the future development trend of the virus, and the impact of the virus on human economic life. conclusion.

References:

[1] https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19—17-august-2022

WHO: Global COVID-19 cases drop by 25%

(source:internet, reference only)

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