Study estimates COVID-19 vaccine saved nearly 20 million lives last year

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Study estimates COVID-19 vaccine saved nearly 20 million lives last year

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Study estimates COVID-19 vaccine saved nearly 20 million lives last year.

A new model by researchers at Imperial College London estimates that a COVID-19 vaccine could prevent nearly 20 million deaths globally in 2021.

The study also concluded that hundreds of thousands more lives could have been saved last year if the vaccine had been more equitably distributed globally.

Gregory Barnsle, co-first author of the new study, explained:

“Quantifying the impact of vaccination globally is challenging because countries have different access to vaccines and our understanding of which variants of COVID-19 are already circulating differ. , genetic sequence data is very limited in many countries.It is also impossible to directly measure how many people would die if not vaccinated. Mathematical modeling provides a useful tool for evaluating alternative scenarios that we cannot directly observe in real life .”

The computer model used in the study first tracked reports of excess deaths in 185 countries and territories.

The spread of COVID-19 in each country was then taken into account along with the vaccination rates of individual countries.

From this, the model can estimate how many deaths were averted during 2021 in each country that introduced a vaccine.

Overall, the model estimates that if a vaccine is not developed and distributed, the global death toll from COVID-19 in 2021 will be 31.4 million.

The model estimates the actual number of deaths, including excess deaths not officially attributed to COVID-19, to be 11.6 million in 2021, a figure that falls roughly between the official death toll and recent estimates of as high as 20 million.

That means the model estimates the vaccine may have saved 19.8 million lives last year.

Nearly 80% of those lives saved by vaccines are due to the direct effect of vaccines reducing a person’s likelihood of serious illness and hospitalization.

Another 4 million deaths avoided in the model were due to reduced vaccine-related transmission.

The study’s lead author, Oliver Watson, specifically criticized the failure of the COVAX initiative, a global plan to try to ensure that low-income countries have at least 40% vaccination by the end of 2021.

The study suggests that nearly 600,000 COVID-19 deaths in 2021 could have been avoided if it met its target and the vaccine was distributed more equitably in countries with less supply.

“This initiative was created because it was clear early on that global vaccine equity would be the only way out of the pandemic,” Watson said. “Our findings suggest that millions of lives may have been saved by delivering vaccines to people everywhere, regardless of their wealth. However, much more could have been done. If the targets set by WHO were achieved, We estimate that about one in five lives lost to COVID-19 in low-income countries could be prevented.”

Ultimately, these estimates are a testament to the incredible life-saving potential of a COVID-19 vaccine.

The pace of development of these vaccines is unprecedented in scientific research, and the rapid distribution in 2021 has resulted in tens of millions of lives being saved.

However, the study does point to areas that must be improved in the future, citing the millions of lives lost last year due to problems with vaccine distribution infrastructure and fairness issues with rich countries hoarding large doses.

The new study concludes: “The future requires more rapid sharing of vaccine intellectual property and more open transfer of technology and knowledge around vaccine production and distribution. Vaccine distribution and delivery infrastructure also needs to be scaled globally and combat misinformation , to increase the demand for vaccines.”

The new study was published in the journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases .

Study estimates COVID-19 vaccine saved nearly 20 million lives last year

(source:internet, reference only)

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