July 23, 2024

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More than 1 million Chinese died after China quit “Zero-COVID policy”?

More than 1 million Chinese died after China quit “Zero-COVID policy”?



 

More than 1 million Chinese died after China quit “Zero-COVID policy”?  How many people died of the epidemic after China gave up Zero-COVID policy ?

The New York Times estimated on the 16th that after China abandoned the zero-zero policy, the death toll was between 1 million and 1.5 million.

 

(Central News Agency, Taipei, 16th) After China abruptly abandoned the world’s most stringent COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control measures in December last year, the outside world is concerned about how many people have died from the epidemic.

The New York Times today quoted multiple papers and expert opinions and estimated that the death toll was between 1 million and 1.5 million.

Chinese officials suddenly abandoned the epidemic prevention policy of dynamic Zero-COVID policy in December last year. At that time, media and online information showed that many well-known scholars died, crematoriums were overwhelmed, and hospitals were overcrowded.

 

More than 1 million Chinese died after China quit "Zero-COVID policy"? 


According to China’s strict official definition of epidemic deaths, and only counts the number of deaths in hospitals, the death toll as of February 9 was 83,150.

In December, Chinese officials only released the number of deaths involving respiratory failure, not including those infected who died of liver, kidney or heart failure, until mid-January when the government began releasing case data for deaths from other causes, but the numbers remained incomplete . Many residents testified that the hospital asked the family of the deceased not to write a cause of death related to COVID-19.

While precise statistics are impossible, epidemiologists have been trying to piece together the unsolved mysteries of the accelerated outbreak that began in December, the report said.

Estimates based on four unrelated academic teams are broadly similar: The COVID-19 outbreak in China may have killed between 1 million and 1.5 million people.

According to official figures, China’s per capita death rate during the epidemic since 2020 is the lowest among all major countries, with only 6 deaths per 100,000 people.

However, according to scholars, whether it is the higher estimate of 110 deaths per 100,000 people or the lower estimate of 68 deaths, China has exceeded the official death rate of many Asian countries that have never adopted Such a radical Zero-COVID policy measure.

Official Chinese figures put the death toll at 83,150, but other academic groups put the death toll at between 1 million and 1.5 million.

At the same time, China’s epidemic death rate ranks behind Germany, Italy, the United States and other countries where the epidemic accelerated before the advent of the vaccine.

Two of the estimates cited by The Times came from papers that had been published in academic journals or were undergoing peer review, while the other two analyzes were provided by epidemiologists in response to inquiries.

One of the earlier estimates, based on research on the 2022 Shanghai outbreak, was published in the May 2022 issue of Nature Medicine, and the paper concluded that ending the Zero-COVID policy policy could reduce medical The health system was overwhelmed and an estimated 1.6 million people died.

The study assumed outbreaks in spring and summer. But the outbreak in China occurred in winter. Experts believe that the rate of virus reproduction increases during winter.

Second, in a recent paper, three scientists from the University of Hong Kong also simulated how increased travel during the Spring Festival would occur by looking at the number of deaths in each age group during previous outbreaks in other countries and adjusting the data for Chinese demographics. contribute to the spread of the virus.

They estimate that the surge in infections could kill about 970,000 people by the end of January.

A third group of researchers used information released after the worst of the outbreak had passed. A report by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said that even as China canceled mass nucleic acid testing, health officials continued to test hundreds of thousands of people across the country from Dec. 9 to Jan. 23 last year.

Based on these test data, two researchers from the University of Texas and the University of Hong Kong concluded that 90% of the population was infected within a month.

When the researchers incorporated the timing of the outbreak, estimated fatality rate, and vaccine effectiveness into the statistical model, the result was that the outbreak could have killed about 1.5 million people.
The researchers said that considering uncertain factors such as the speed at which the vaccine takes effect, a reasonable estimate of the death toll should range from 1.2 million to 1.7 million.

The last is a calculation based on the US death rate. Epidemiologists at Columbia University hypothesized that the death rate among those infected in China would be about the same as the current situation in the United States, or 0.15%. The researchers point out that many factors are counteracting each other.

The vaccines used in China are different from those used in the United States. But by the time the outbreak hit, the Chinese population had been less exposed to the virus and thus more susceptible to infection.

At a death rate similar to that of the US, if 40% to 65% of the Chinese population were infected (conservative estimates), then 900,000 to 1.4 million people could die.

 

 

 

 

Reference:

https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202302160208.aspx

More than 1 million Chinese died after China quit “Zero-COVID policy”?

(source:internet, reference only)


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