In 2056 the population of the United States will surpass that of China

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In 2056 the population of the United States will surpass that of China

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In 2056 the population of the United States will surpass that of China. 

Think tank: by 2056, the birth population of mainland China will be surpassed by the United States.

According to a Chinese think tank that studies population issues: Although China’s total population is four times larger than that of the United States, the number of births in China will be surpassed by that of the United States in 2056.

At that time, China will no longer be a populous country, and the population advantage accumulated by the Chinese nation for thousands of years will be lost. disappear.

According to the official website of “Yuwa Population Research”, Yuwa Population is a think tank dedicated to population and related public policy issues, analyzing the population situation, etc.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on the 17th of last month that the national population at the end of 2022 will be 1.41175 billion, a decrease of 850,000 compared with the end of 2021. The natural population growth rate is negative 0.6 per thousand people, the first negative growth in 61 years, which has aroused the attention of all parties. .

The latest “China Population Forecast Report 2023 Edition” released by Yuwa Population pointed out that if the low forecast trend remains unchanged, China’s birth population will drop to about 9 million in 2023, fall below 8 million in 2025, and fall below 7 million in 2027 , to 4.93 million by 2050 and less than 1 million in 2100.

In particular, China’s current birth population is only half of India’s, and by the middle of this century it will only be one third of India’s, and it may be less than one quarter of India’s by 2100.

It is predicted that China’s birth population will be surpassed by the United States in 2056, and by 2100 it will only be about 2/3 of.

Although the current total population of China is more than four times that of the United States, the number of births will be overtaken by the United States in two generations.

It can be seen that China’s population is depleting rapidly, and the current fertility rate of the United States is also significantly low.

Thanks to attracting a large number of immigrants of childbearing age, so Basically, the number of births can be maintained stable.

In this way, China’s population will decrease to 1.17 billion in 2050, and to 479 million in 2100, accounting for only 4.8% of the world’s current 17%. At this time, China’s newborns account for less than 1% of the world. , about 0.89%.

At that time, China will no longer be a populous country, and the population advantages accumulated by the Chinese nation for thousands of years will disappear. In addition, the shrinking of the total population lags behind the shrinking of the birth population. cause for concern.

The report pointed out that if only the current authorities promulgated policies to encourage childbearing, China will undoubtedly become one of the countries with the most serious aging and population decline within a few decades. By 2100, China’s newborn population will only be 94. million, less than 1/2 of that of the United States.

This think tank that studies population said that if China encourages birth with the same strength as developed countries, the fertility rate can only be maintained at a level slightly lower than that of Japan, which is about 1.1. Only by investing about 5% of GDP can it be raised. Raise it to a level close to 1.4 in Western countries.

If China’s fertility rate reaches 1.4, which is similar to that of Western countries, China’s newborn population will rise to about 10.62 million in 2030, which is equivalent to the scale in 2021, and the total population in 2050 may reach 1.29 billion. Still less than the current figure of more than 1.4 billion.

Reference:

https://file.c-ctrip.com/files/6/yuwa/0R72j12000ap2yj4t44F0.pdf

(source:internet, reference only)

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