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COVID-19 Delta variant has changed three important understandings
COVID-19 Delta variant has changed three important understandings. The Delta mutant strain has led to the complete shift of the three most important understandings
Let’s summarize the epidemic situation in the last week and the changes caused by it.
Summarize the important COVID-19 research progress in the past week, mainly including:
- Compared with HIV, the new coronavirus is a stupid virus; this is a key indicator of vaccine protection against infection and an important basis for choosing enhanced vaccination
- Public Health England: Lambda mutant strain may not compete with Delta to become a major epidemic mutant strain
- The United States changed its mouth: ready to make a third shot. Moderna Company: The neutralization titer of Delta mutant strains increased 42 times by half-quantity enhancement
- The first non-vaccine drug to prevent COVID-19 was published in NEJM, let’s learn about preventive drug research strategies
- [Data is here] How serious are the children’s COVID-19 cases? American Academy of Pediatrics data released
- The most comprehensive and detailed summary of key points for COVID-19
- The British lie down because of herd immunity?
- For Delta, whether to vaccinate or not directly compare the results announced
- What is the proportion of infection deaths among vaccinators of COVID-19?
The biggest news in the past week is: The Delta mutant completely changed the anti-epidemic strategy.
1. The change in the intensity of the infection of the Delta mutant strain means that the idea of relying on vaccines to establish herd immunity to eliminate the spread of the new coronavirus has almost been disillusioned; those who have not been vaccinated are in a more dangerous situation.
2. Children are no longer safe.
3. The third needle replanting becomes a must.
Let us first report today’s latest epidemic data, and finally look forward to the changes in the epidemic.
A, the global COVID-19 epidemic: Continue to deteriorate
According to the New York Times Epidemic Tracker, the number of new cases in a single day worldwide has increased by 14% over the previous two weeks, reaching 600,000 per day; the number of deaths has dropped by 4% to 9,213.
(Source: New York Times Epidemic Tracker)
From the map of the COVID-19 epidemic, the United States continues to be the country with the largest number of confirmed cases in a single day, with more than 100,000 new cases in the last week; followed by India, Iran, Indonesia and Brazil.
In particular, cases in the United States and Iran have continued to increase, cases in Indonesia and Brazil have continued to decrease, while cases in India have not changed significantly.
(Number of infected cases in a single day on August 6. Source: Data World)
The epidemic in the United States has worsened than before.
In the past two weeks, the number of new cases in the United States has increased by 113%, the number of hospitalizations has increased by 87%, and the number of deaths has increased by 88%.
(Source: New York Times Epidemic Tracker)
The recurrence of the epidemic in the United States has a great relationship with the low vaccination rate in the United States.
As of August 6, 2021, 58% of the U.S. population, 71% of adults aged 18 and over, and 90% of people 65 and over have received at least one dose of the vaccine. This vaccination ratio not only lags far behind the UK, but also has begun to lag behind China.
There are also many friends who don’t know much about the epidemic in the United States. You see, in the United States, a country where infections are increasing by 100,000+, playgrounds are still overcrowded; while China’s daily increase in cases of about 100 is already high.
The main reason is that the vaccination in the United States is very uneven. Americans in some states really don’t care about the new coronavirus and the vaccination rate is extremely low. As a result, the new cases of the United States are mainly concentrated in the southeastern states.
But this kind of carelessness is also paying the price. In the entanglement between Human Right and Human Left, free choice has become natural choice.
Relatively speaking, the region where the author is located is relatively stable due to the high vaccination rate. There are not many new cases, and most of our county has maintained zero deaths due to COVID-19 recently.
B, Vaccination: China’s vaccination volume is still far ahead
Judging from the current Delta mutant strain of the new coronavirus, it is difficult for vaccines to completely free humans from the spread of COVID-19, but it is still the most effective means to reduce the mortality rate in case of infection with the new coronavirus.
Therefore, the world is rushing to vaccinate.
As shown in the figure below, of the 4.4 billion vaccine doses that humans have received, China has vaccinated more than 1.7 billion doses. In the past week, China has received an average of more than 17.19 million doses of vaccine every day! Wow the world.
The proportion of vaccination in China has surpassed that of the United States and the European Union.
(End of the epidemic competition. Screenshot source: Bloomberg)
However, global vaccination is still severely unbalanced. If according to the vaccination rate of each continent, Europe is the highest (89%), followed by North America, South America, Asia, Oceania and Africa (5.5%).
This imbalance in vaccination is an important factor in the occurrence of more new mutant strains.
So much so that the World Health Organization appeals: Those countries that want to revaccinate, please transfer this batch of vaccines to countries where the vaccine is low, and at least let these countries reach a 10% vaccination rate.
(Source: New York Times Epidemic Tracker)
C, protect yourself
The Delta mutant strain has led to a complete shift in the three most important understandings.
1. It is more susceptible to infection with Delta mutant strains, and you can only rely on vaccination to protect yourself.
Earlier data showed that
As a result of vaccination in nursing homes in the United States, not only the infection rate and the severity rate of vaccinated persons have been reduced, but those who have not been vaccinated have also been protected, and the rate of severe illness has also decreased.
That is, the original hypothesis is that through a high proportion of vaccination, the establishment of herd immunity can protect not only the vaccinated but also the non-vaccinated.
The Delta mutant strain changed this situation.
Those who have not been vaccinated not only can no longer be effectively protected, but are therefore more dangerous.
Because the viral load of the Delta mutant strain is 1000 times higher than that of the original strain, it is extremely infectious, making it one of the three most infectious viruses.
As a result, even if the vaccine is completely vaccinated, it can only reduce the chance of infection by a factor of three, and as the time of vaccination is extended, the protection is getting lower and lower.
This means that in the face of the Delta mutant strain, even if it is fully vaccinated, the chance of contracting the new coronavirus is still high.
However, full vaccination continued to reduce the severity and mortality of infected persons by 8 times. And the chances of fully vaccinated people becoming asymptomatic infection increased three times.
This means that in the face of the Delta mutant strain, people who are fully vaccinated rarely become seriously ill or die from the disease, but a large number of people become asymptomatic infected or mildly ill. The most important thing is that these asymptomatic infections or mild infections are still very contagious.
As a result of vaccination, a higher proportion of people infected with the Delta mutant strain are asymptomatic, and they will unknowingly infect people who have not been vaccinated.
At this time, the only way to protect yourself is to vaccinate yourself.
2. Children are no longer safe.
The United Kingdom has reported the deaths of children with COVID-19 cases in the country, showing a very low rate of severe illness and mortality. As a result, the United Kingdom has temporarily suspended the approval of the use of the COVID-19 vaccine for children under 16 years of age.
But this set of data is data from the year before the COVID-19 pandemic in the United Kingdom. And now there is a Delta mutant strain, so this set of data can no longer be used to make current decisions.
The highly infectious nature of the Delta mutant strain has led to a rapid increase in children’s cases as well as adult cases.
At present, the United States has reported 4.19 million cases of COVID-19 in children, accounting for 14.3% of all U.S. cases.
According to the census just completed in the United States, there are 73 million children (under the age of 18) in the United States, accounting for 22% of the total population. Based on this calculation, approximately 5.6% of American children have been infected with COVID-19.
The severe illness rate (1%) and fatality rate (0.01%, or 1 in 10,000) of children infected with the Delta mutant strain.
The key is that in the data known to doctors and scientists, the sequelae of COVID-19 infection exist for a long time, and this 1% of severely ill patients will become a long-term medical problem, which will seriously affect the future life and work of children.
3. Vaccine replanting becomes a must.
The United States changed its attitude of rejecting the third dose of intensive vaccination and began planning for re-vaccination.
Israel has started to revaccinate high-risk groups from August 1, and the United Kingdom and Germany will also start revaccinations in September.
The question of whether to replant is no longer necessary. What needs to be considered is which vaccine to replant.
The published changes in the titers of neutralizing antibodies after intensive vaccination (as shown in the figure below) can give a key reference.
As ordinary people, what should we do?
1. Fully vaccinated.
Although there are also vaccines that can be vaccinated with a single dose (such as Johnson & Johnson’s adenovirus vector vaccine), you need to know that:
- Single-dose vaccination is not because the protective power of the vaccine is sufficiently high, but because the adenovirus vector itself easily induces neutralizing antibodies and reduces the effect of the second dose.
- The second dose in double-dose vaccination is extremely critical and necessary.
In the face of the Delta mutant strain, it is necessary to assume: “After being fully vaccinated, although some people may still be infected with the new coronavirus Delta mutant strain, the vast majority of fully vaccinated people will not die of illness.”
Therefore, complete vaccination as soon as possible is the most critical option.
2. For high-risk groups, consider replanting the third dose
Although the pace of different countries is different, according to the current data of the vaccine against the Delta mutant strain, the third dose of supplementation has become a must.
High-risk groups (old age, obesity, and people with underlying diseases) who have been vaccinated for more than 6 months can plan the third dose according to the organization in the region.
The United States is extremely divided in this regard.
On the one hand, the news reported that a 45-year-old anti-vaccine/anti-mask leader died of illness due to infection with the COVID-19 vaccine;
On the other hand, data from the US CDC found that more than 900 residents have been secretly vaccinated with the third dose.
3. Non-drug intervention + enhance your own immunity
There is a high probability that you will not die after being vaccinated, which does not mean that you do not need to prevent the epidemic; leaving sequelae is also an extremely terrible problem. Therefore, stick to preventive measures.
Wearing masks when going out, visiting crowded places less, and keeping social distance (2 meters or 6 feet) when meeting are all necessary and effective non-drug interventions.
But at home, you must pay more attention to exercise to enhance your immunity: gain muscle, lose fat, and bask in the sun.
(source:internet, reference only)