How would the COVID-19 situation be if UK was completely open for a month?

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How would the COVID-19 situation be if UK was completely open for a month?

How would the COVID-19 situation be if UK was completely open for a month? better or worse?

The United Kingdom is:

• 1) the first country where the Delta mutant strain is rampant;
• 2) the country with the highest vaccination rate among the large countries;
• 3) it uses both the Pfizer mRNA vaccine with high protection against infection and the country’s AstraZeneca Adenovirus vector vaccine with inadequate protection,
• 4) The UK will be fully opened on July 19 (Freedom Day).

Therefore, the UK provides a testing ground for how vaccines deal with mutant strains.

The UK is open for a month, How is the epidemic?

Kit Yates, director of the Center for Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath, made a simple summary directly with the data: At present, about 90 people die from the COVID-19 infection in the UK every day, about 800 people are hospitalized due to COVID-19, and nearly 30,000 new cases are added every day; by Therefore, the opening of the United Kingdom is far from a success.

“If there was one lesson I wish other countries would take from watching the UK’s attempt to reopen is that vaccines are not the whole solution to the problem,”

Yates believes that in order to control COVID-19, in addition to vaccines, other necessary public health measures are needed: masks are required to be worn in public places, schools and workplaces are ventilated, and systematic testing, tracking and isolation systems are required.

In fact, after the UK opened on July 19, the number of cases experienced a process of increasing-decreasing-increasing again.
The decrease in new cases is mainly due to the end of the European Football Championship on July 11, plus the beginning of the British school summer vacation on July 16.

The current epidemic is obviously a better reflection of the real situation in the UK.

(Changes in the UK epidemic)

In addition to changes in the epidemic, we are more concerned about:

Vaccination, What substantive changes have been made to the epidemic?

According to the data provided by Yates, from the perspective of hospitalization ratio, 10% of the cases in the UK required hospitalization in January before the vaccination was fully launched; in August, only 2%-3% of the cases in the UK required hospitalization. Yates believes that this shows that vaccines are having a huge impact.

However, the Hanson project team noticed that the current infected population has also completely changed. In January, the proportion of elderly people was very high, and the proportion of young people and children is far higher than before, and the severe disease rate of the latter itself is very low.

This suggests that the reduction in hospitalization rates for COVID-19 in the UK is due to the dual impact of vaccination and the younger age of the infected population.

This also makes us want to compare the current outbreaks in the United Kingdom and the United States.

In the past week, there were approximately 986,251 new COVID-19 infections in the United States; 80,570 patients were admitted to the hospital, that is, about 8.17% of the infected people in the United States were admitted to the hospital; it turned out to be three times the current COVID-19 hospitalization rate in the United Kingdom (2.58%)!

For this difference, CNN believes that the key is the vaccination rate and the elderly infection rate.

The proportion of fully vaccinated in the United Kingdom has reached 61%, while only 51% in the United States.

The biggest difference is that in the currently infected population, 90%-95% of the 50-year-old doctors in the UK are fully vaccinated, while the current outbreak center in Florida, even if only 86% of the elderly over the age of 65 are vaccinated Vaccine, only 79% of 60-64 years old.

Therefore, the high vaccination rate + the high proportion of adolescents in the infected population is a key factor in the UK’s severely ill rate being far lower than that of the US.

British vaccination is also continuing

Previously, based on the proportion of COVID-19 infections and deaths among children in the country, the United Kingdom calculated that children do not need to be vaccinated. However, with the spread of the Delta mutant strain, the proportion of children infected with COVID-19 has increased sharply, and the number of deaths has also increased. So the UK has just approved Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for children 12 years and older. But so far, only high-risk children have been vaccinated.

AstraZeneca adenovirus vaccine, How much less long-term protection is than Pfizer mRNA vaccine?

According to data from Israel, the protective power of Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine gradually weakened as the time of vaccination increased. So what about the AstraZeneca adenovirus vaccine?

On August 19, 2021, the analysis of the UK’s 3 million PCR tests by the University of Oxford and the UK National Bureau of Statistics showed that:

After the Pfizer mRNA vaccine is fully vaccinated, the protection efficiency in preventing people from developing a high viral load (high virus concentration in the test sample) is 92%; but the protection effectiveness of the vaccine drops to 90% and 85% after 30, 60, and 90 days, respectively And 78%.

The adenovirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals in Cambridge, England has a protective effect of 69% against high viral loads after complete vaccination, which drops to 61% by 90 days.

That is, although the initial protective power of adenovirus vaccines is low, the attenuation is slower than that of mRNA vaccines.

For the Delta mutant strain, the study showed:

“Both of these vaccines, two doses are still doing really well against Delta”

Reference materials:  FOR How would the COVID-19 situation be if UK was completely open for a month? 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/19/health/uk-coronavirus-month-since-freedom-day-intl-gbr-cmd/index.html

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8#ref-CR1

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coronavirus/covid-19-infection-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

(source:internet, reference only)

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