February 24, 2024

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Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?


Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

Turkey has just experienced its worst earthquake in a century. As for Japan, where volcanoes and earthquakes occur frequently, will there be a huge earthquake of magnitude 9?

The Japanese government’s answer: “It will happen, but we don’t know when.”

First of all, the Japanese archipelago is in a special geological structure position on the earth.

Under the Japanese archipelago is the place where the Pacific plate, the Philippine plate, the Eurasian plate, and the North American plate overlap.

There are more than ten plates in the entire earth, and Japan accounts for There are 4 of them, and a slight loosening of any plate can make the Japanese archipelago tremble for a while.


Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

Earthquakes around the world from 2011 to 2020 according to the U.S. Geological Survey


Because of this, Japan has been hit by numerous major earthquakes in history. The most recent one was the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, which was magnitude 9.

Because it happened on the bottom of the sea, it set off a tsunami more than 30 meters high and destroyed 20,000 people were killed and missing in many cities along the Pacific side in the Tohoku region of Japan.


The area of the Japanese archipelago is only 0.25% of the world, but the number of earthquakes every year accounts for 18.5% of the world.

According to the monitoring of the Japan Meteorological Agency, in 2021, there will be a total of 2,024 earthquakes (magnitude 1-7) in Japan, with an average of about 169 earthquakes per month.

Therefore, people living on the Japanese archipelago have a natural “immunity” to earthquakes. Generally, when an earthquake below magnitude 4 occurs, they will do whatever they want and will not run away.


Secondly, Japan is a country with many volcanoes. There are 111 active volcanoes in Japan, accounting for 7% of the total number of active volcanoes in the world.

Active volcanoes have brought abundant hot spring resources to Japan, which has also stimulated Japan’s hot spring tourism and geothermal power generation industries.

However, volcanic eruptions can also cause casualties and property damage. If it is linked with a major earthquake, the damage will be even greater.

The most recent volcanic disaster was the eruption of Mount Ontake in Nagano Prefecture at noon on September 27, 2014. Due to no warning, 58 climbers were killed and 5 people were missing.

The latest volcanic eruption was yesterday (February 14) at 14:48 pm. Sakurajima in Kagoshima Prefecture erupted, with smoke as high as 2,400 meters.

Sakurajima is the largest active volcano in Japan. It erupts several times a year, but because it is far away from residential areas, every eruption has caused no injuries.


Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?On February 14, the scene of the eruption of Sakurajima Volcano



Just because Japan is a country with many earthquakes, many earthquake research and monitoring institutions have been established in Japan from the government to the private sector.

In particular, the Japanese government has established institutions such as the “Earthquake Investigation Committee” (Prime Minister’s Office) and the “Earthquake Investigation and Research Promotion Headquarters” (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) composed of earthquake research experts.


In addition, universities such as the University of Tokyo and Kyoto University have specialized earthquake research institutes, and there are also many non-governmental forecasting agencies. At the same time, the Japanese government publishes the probability of earthquake occurrence across the country every year.


The most authoritative publication is the report of the Earthquake Investigation Committee of the Japanese Government. The committee released a report on the probability of earthquakes across the country on January 13 this year, stating that the probability of a magnitude 8-9 earthquake in the “Nankai Trench” in the next 40 years It is 90%.


The “Nankai Trench” seismic belt extends from Suruga Bay (Izu Peninsula) in Shizuoka Prefecture to the Hyuga Nada offshore in Kyushu, covering central cities such as Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka. It is not only a major economic area in Japan , is a densely populated area.


Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

Scenario area of “Nanhai Trench” earthquake


The Earthquake Investigation Committee of the Japanese government clearly pointed out that the “Nanhai Trench” earthquake generally occurs every 100-200 years.

The most recent earthquakes occurred in 1944 and 1946. Among them, the Dongnanhai earthquake in 1944 had a magnitude of 8.2 and 1,223 people were dead or missing.

The Nankai earthquake in 1946 had a magnitude of 8.4, and the number of dead and missing people was 1,443.


According to the Earthquake Investigation Committee, if a major earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in the “Nanhai Trench” occurs, it will trigger a tsunami of more than 10 meters, and it is estimated that 620,000 people will die and 2.38 million houses will collapse.


The above announcement is probably the origin of the news that “Japan is about to have a magnitude 9 earthquake” that is widely circulated in China.

It is not yet known when the earthquake will occur, but the Earthquake Investigation Committee of the Japanese government has calculated the height of the tsunami and the arrival time of the tsunami in various places after the earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in the “Nanhai Trough”, and published it in a list, so that you can You can know how long you should escape from low-altitude areas after the earthquake, and you can also know the safe height for building and buying a house in the future.


Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

After the “Nanhai Trench” earthquake, the time and height prediction of tsunami arrival in various places


In addition to the “Nankai Trench” earthquake, the Japanese government’s Earthquake Investigation Committee also predicts that the probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake in the Tokyo metropolitan area will reach 70% in the next 30 years.

And if it happens, 23,000 people will die and 610,000 houses will be destroyed.



Will the release of earthquake prediction news cause social unrest?


In Japan, it will not happen, but it has the effect of enhancing the awareness of disaster prevention.

Because most of the buildings in Japan are solid, and the earthquake resistance is above level 8, there will be no tragic collapse of buildings like the earthquake in Turkey.

However, because Japan is an island country, once a major earthquake occurs in the sea, it will cause a large tsunami.

Therefore, what destroys a city, damages a group of buildings, and deprives many lives is not an earthquake, but a tsunami.

This was the result of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. More than 95% of the deaths were caused by the tsunami.


Therefore, the Japanese government publishes the report on the probability of earthquakes in various places every year, not to scare the common people, but to let the common people know that there will be a major earthquake in the area where they live and where they work.

How should I evacuate and where should I evacuate? How to prepare evacuation materials in advance?

When building a house and buying a house, how should we choose a safe location and the seismic strength of the apartment building?

There is only one purpose, that is: minimize the damage caused by the earthquake, and protect your life and property!


Remember a evacuation rule: If you encounter a major earthquake in the coastal area, immediately flee to a higher place (the higher the better).

If there are no mountains nearby, flee to a solid high-rise building, don’t wait for the elevator, climb the stairs to the high-rise.

If you encounter a major earthquake in an inland area, run to an open area quickly. Under normal circumstances, primary and secondary schools and public halls in various places are government-designated refuge places, where food and power supplies will be provided.

Simply put, as long as there is sufficient awareness and knowledge of disaster prevention, it is entirely possible to protect yourself in the event of a major earthquake in Japan.




Will there be a magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan?

(source:internet, reference only)

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