Delta variant as one of the most infectious viruses in CDC internal documents
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The internal documents of CDC leaked: Delta variant as one of the most infectious viruses in CDC internal documents
Delta variant as one of the most infectious viruses in CDC internal documents. In the past two days, the most important news in the United States is: The Washington Post WaPo obtained internal information from the US CDC, and the summary slide on the transmission rate of the Delta mutant detonated the Internet.
According to the data, the basic infectious value (R0) of the new coronavirus Delta mutant strain is 5-9.5, far exceeding the infectivity of the original strain 1.5-3.5; the transmission speed exceeds MERS, SARS, smallpox, common cold and 1918 influenza; and Chickenpox is equivalent.
Although vaccination can prevent the mutant strain to a great extent, the vaccinated person may still carry the mutant strain and infect others.
The title of this material is “Improving communications around vaccine breakthrough and vaccine effectiveness”.
Although we have been paying close attention to the latest scientific progress of COVID-19, after reading this document repeatedly, we are still shocked in a cold sweat.
Let’s briefly talk about the key content of this set of materials; if you need complete materials, you can reply “2021cdc” under the main page of the official account.
Two names need to be explained in advance,
Breakthrough infection (vaccine breakthrough) refers to infection with the COVID-19 virus despite being fully vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine.
The basic infectious value (R0) refers to the ability of an infected person to spread the pathogen to several other people. For example, it was previously believed that the R0 of the new coronavirus is 2.6 (1.5-3.5), which means that a new coronavirus patient will infect other 2.6 people on average; and the current R0 of the Delta mutant strain is adjusted to 5-9.5, with an average of 7.5, that is, one infected with the Delta mutation People from the strain will further infect 7.5 other people.
The documents are straight to the point. It is said that there will be more breakthrough cases, and the public will lose confidence in the vaccine, so it is necessary to adjust the communication method and describe the breakthrough cases as “rare” or “a small percentage” of cases.
Currently, about 35,000 people who have been vaccinated with Pfizer are infected with symptomatic COVID-19 every week; but the vaccine is still very effective.
Full vaccination can reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19 by 8 times, the risk of being hospitalized with COVID-19 by 25 times, and the risk of death by contracting COVID-19 by 25 times.
Note that this is for all new coronaviruses, and for the Delta mutant strain, it is much lower.
Later, the CDC also talked about a lot of vaccine protection content, all in order to communicate with the public to improve everyone’s confidence in the vaccine. We will no longer show them one by one, because a lot of the content is actually very outdated.
We pulled directly to the part targeting the Delta mutant strain.
The picture below is the biggest tipping point.
You will notice that the dark blue in the box marks the data of the COVID-19 Delta mutant. The fatality rate of the Delta mutant is between 0.1 and 1, and the R0 is between 5 and 9.5, which is similar to chickenpox (R0 is 8.5). ; Together with measles (R0 is 12-18), constitute the three most infectious viruses.
The infectivity of the Delta mutant strain is far more than SARS, MERS, two coronaviruses, and more than Ebola, common cold, seasonal flu, 1918 influenza, smallpox and other viruses.
We showed this original picture made by the New York Times on February 3, 2020. The R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is between 1.5-3.5, and most scholars calculated the value to be 2.6.
(The horizontal axis is the basic infectious value R0, and the vertical axis is the case fatality rate FR)
The viral load of the Delta mutant strain is higher after infection (the Guangdong CDC study shows that it is 1260 times higher), so the Delta mutant strain causes a lower circulating threshold (Ct) of mutant infection (16.5 vs. 19), and the infection time is longer. Longer (18 days vs. 13 days), the risk of re-infection is also higher (OR 1.46)!
The Delta mutant strain also resulted in a higher rate of hospitalization and mortality.
After being fully vaccinated with Pfizer, the protection of the vaccine against the Delta mutant strain is also lower than that against the Alpha mutant strain.
Due to the much higher infectivity of the Delta mutant strain and lower vaccine protection effectiveness, non-drug interventions such as wearing masks are necessary and effective methods.
Infected people wear masks, which have 40%-60% protection; susceptible people wear masks, which have 20%-30% protection. (The specific value is related to the choice of mask)
Therefore, the CDC recommends: Put on the mask you removed again!
The report also mentioned that even if they are vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine, those infected with the Delta mutant strain will carry a large number of viruses and will continue to infect other people.
There will be more cases of breakthrough infections.
CDC’s notification for the Delta mutant strain:
You know: The war has changed.
Understand: There will be more and more breakthrough infections.
Accept: Full vaccination can reduce the risk of infection with Delta by 3 times, and reduce the risk of becoming critically ill or death by COVID-19 by 10 times.
The treatment given by the US CDC:
For certain groups, vaccination is mandatory;
Put on the mask you removed again!
picture
According to the “Washington Post”, CDC officials informed members of Congress of the situation on Thursday and emphasized that “the war has changed”!
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky confirmed the authenticity of the document and told CNN:
“I think people need to understand that we’re not crying wolf here. This is serious. It’s one of the most transmissible viruses we know about. Measles, chickenpox, this—they’re all up there.”
Editor’s note:
Summary of the key contents of the US CDC document:
1. The Delta mutant strain of the new coronavirus is extremely infectious, with an R0 of 5-9.5, making it one of the most infectious viruses.
2. The Delta mutant strain is also more virulent, resulting in a higher rate of hospitalizations and deaths.
3. Pfizer vaccine has reduced protection against infection with the Delta mutant strain.
Say the important thing again!
CDC’s notification for the Delta mutant strain:
You know: The war has changed.
Understand: There will be more and more breakthrough infections.
Accept: Full vaccination can reduce the risk of infection with Delta by 3 times, and reduce the risk of becoming critically ill or death by COVID-19 by 10 times.
The treatment given by the US CDC:
For certain groups, vaccination is mandatory;
Put on the mask you removed again!
(source:internet, reference only)
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Important Note: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as medical advice.
