Tirzepatide will be used for weight loss: Potential market with 10 billion US dollars

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Tirzepatide will be used for weight loss: Potential market with 10 billion US dollars

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Tirzepatide will be used for weight loss: Potential market with 10 billion US dollars

Eli Lilly’s dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist , Mounjaro (Tirzepatide) , is starting to blow its weight-loss blockbuster potential just 3 weeks after it received FDA approval for type 2 diabetes (May 13 ). 

In the phase III SURMOUNT-1 trial , Tirzepatide met its two primary endpoints:

• Higher mean percent change from baseline in weight loss;
• A greater proportion of subjects lost at least 5% of their body weight compared to placebo .

Eli Lilly announced the clinical trial results at the 82nd American Diabetes Association (ADA) annual meeting in New Orleans on Saturday (June 4) , and was published in the same day in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) .

The specific findings of the SURMOUNT-1 trial are as follows:

Subjects in the Tirzepatide group lost an average of 16.0% ( 35 lbs or 16kg , 5mg ), 21.4% ( 49 lbs or 22kg , 10mg ) and 22.5% ( 52 lbs or 24kg , 15mg ) and placebo (2.4%) , 5 lbs or 2kg) . In addition, 89% (5mg) and 96% (10mg and 15mg) of subjects in the Tirzepatide group achieved a weight loss of at least 5% compared to 28% in the placebo group .

All three doses of Tirzepatide met all key secondary endpoints of efficacy estimates at 72 weeks of treatment , including:

• Percentages of subjects who lost at least 10% body weight: 73% ( 5mg ), 86% ( 10mg ) and 90% ( 15mg ) compared to 14% in the placebo group .
• Percentages of subjects who lost at least 15% body weight: 50% ( 5mg ), 74% ( 10mg ) and 78% ( 15mg ) compared to 6.0% in the placebo group .
• Percentages of subjects who lost at least 20% body weight: 32% ( 5mg ), 55% ( 10mg ) and 63% ( 15mg ) compared to 1.3% in the placebo group .
• Changes in waist circumference from baseline: -14.6cm ( 5mg ), -19.4cm ( 10mg ) and -19.9cm ( 15mg ) compared to -3.4cm in the placebo group .
• All three doses of Tirzepatide met additional secondary endpoints at 72 weeks of treatment , measuring the percentage of subjects who lost at least 25% body weight: 16.5% ( 5mg ), 35% ( 10mg) and 39.7% (15mg) , compared with 0.3% in the placebo group .
• Subjects on Tirzepatide also had approximately three times less fat mass than lean body mass ( 33.9% less fat mass compared to 10.9% less lean body mass ).

Previously, Evaluate Vantage predicted that Tirzepatide would generate $ 4.9 billion in sales by 2026 .

However, industry analysts believe that the sales potential of Tirzepatide is widely underestimated, with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) thinking the drug could reach $ 14.1 billion by 2030 , compared with the current consensus forecast of $ 11.4 billion .

In addition to the obvious weight loss benefits, Tirzepatide can significantly reduce blood pressure, and the drug will be a strong competitor to Novo Nordisk’s weight loss drug Wegovy ( semaglutide injection). In a cross-trial comparison, Tirzepatide reduced systolic blood pressure by 7.2 mmHg and Wegovy by 6.2 mmHg .

In addition, tirzpeatide lowered diastolic blood pressure by 4.8mmHg , while Wegovy lowered it by 2.83mmHg .

In diabetes and obesity, Tirzepatide will go head-to-head with Novo Nordisk’s trio of semaglutide: Ozempic (semaglutide injection), Rybelsus (semaglutide tablets) and Wegovy — formerly Two are approved for diabetes, the latter for weight loss.

Novo Nordisk reported in late April that Wegovy had sales of DKK 1.4 billion ($ 198 million) in the first quarter of 2022 , plus the company’s other weight-loss drug, Saxenda (liraglutide ), in the first quarter of 2022. Injectables) of about $ 283.5 million, Novo Nordisk’s overall obesity business saw sales up 107% in constant currency .

Strong demand for Novo Nordisk’s new weight-loss drug Wegovy has prompted the company to raise its 2025 sales target for its obesity drug. The company’s obesity sales are expected to reach DKK 25 billion ($ 3.72 billion) by 2025 , compared with an earlier target of around $ 1.69 billion.

With good data, and Eli Lilly’s experience in metabolic diseases, Tirzepatide may soon achieve its “small goal” of over $10 billion in sales.

Tirzepatide will be used for weight loss: Potential market with 10 billion US dollars

(source:internet, reference only)

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